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David Overton's Blog » Happy 50th, hard drive. But will you make it to 60?
Happy 50th, hard drive. But will you make it to 60?

I saw today that the good old hard disk is 50 years old - I remember my winchester drives, I remember my 1st PC 5MB hard disk.  Now my laptop has 2 x 80GB hard disks and my PCs at home are powered by disks totaling a few TB.

 

What is interesting is whether "platters" will be replaced by RAM in some way.  To learn more, go look at Happy 50th, hard drive. But will you make it to 60? at ComputerWorld.

 

ttfn

 

David

Posted Fri, Sep 29 2006 12:47 AM by David Overton
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Comments

Tim Long wrote re: Happy 50th, hard drive. But will you make it to 60?
on Sat, Sep 30 2006 5:36 AM

I decided to stick my neck out and make a prediction. Taking a quick look around at current memory technology it looks like 6Gb USB flash drives are pretty commonplace right now. If Moore's law applies (and it usually seems to) then in 10 years time 192Gb flash drives should be the norm. However, Moore's law relates to increasing transistor density. In the case of flash drives, they could easily expand in area as well as density, so I think we could see growth of flash memory at double Moore's law. My prediction is that 4 to 5 years from now, we will see feasible and affordable solid state hard drives. I don't think hard drives will vanish for a while though. I think backup tapes will start to disappear and hard drives will be the new backup tape. Check back in 2011 to see if I was right ;-)

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